Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: towards a new global order

“The world should prepare for an expansion of the theatre of confrontation with Russia, beyond Ukraine, beyond Europe and beyond the current financial sanctions and other steps deployed so far by the west.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is setting in motion seismic shifts in geopolitics and how the world economy will be structured in the future. This should be seen, therefore, as the beginning of a process of transition towards a new era in international security and relations.

The crisis has upended supply chains, financial linkages and business models that evolved and became embedded over decades. The most obvious example is Europe’s energy system, which has been largely built on reliance on Russia as a principal supplier of natural gas to power industry and heat homes. Many western companies are now reviewing their operations and investments.

The crisis has also confirmed the shift away from globalisation and international interdependence and economic integration, towards greater fragmentation that we at MAP have highlighted in recent years.

We have already stated that for the west, this marks the beginning of an existential struggle to uphold the rules-based international order. For the west to prevail, Russia, or more specifically its president Vladimir Putin, must in the context of an increasingly assertive challenge from China, find itself isolated, impoverished and defeated as a result of its move to attack a neighbouring country.

The world should prepare, therefore, for an expansion of the theatre of confrontation with Russia, beyond Ukraine, beyond Europe and beyond the current financial sanctions and other steps deployed so far by the West.

We have previously outlined our views of key aspects of this confrontation, looking at the likely immediate impacts of the conflict itself as well as the medium- to long-term consequences that will unfold.

We highlight the implications for diplomacy and international relations, the extent and effect of sanctions, energy security and supply chains, as well as the more localised strategic, political and economic issues facing the US, Europe, the Middle East, Asia and, of course, Russia.

This crisis is still in its early phases. We continue to monitor developments and will provide updates as events unfold. The reverberations will continue to resonate for years to come as a new global order emerges.